Integrated policies could raise China's soybean self-sufficiency and ease global land-use pressure

Lun, Fei;    Sun, Jing;    Zhou, Yi;    Hu, Qiyuan;    Gan, Lai;    Zhang, Tianbao;    Wang, Sijia;    Penuelas, Josep;    Sardans, Jordi;    Lu, Miao;    

Yang, Peng;    Sun, Danfeng;    Liu, Jianguo;    Wu, Wenbin

Abstract

Growing demand for animal-sourced foods is intensifying global reliance on soybeans, with China, the largest consumer and a low self-sufficiency rate (SSR) country, driving global largest imports and associated environmental spillover. To improve its SSR, China has implemented policies including rehabilitating salt-affected land, approving genetically modified soybeans and promoting healthy dietary transition. Here we evaluated these interventions using a scenario-based framework benchmarked against a no-policy baseline reconstructed soybean demand. China's SSR declined from full self-sufficiency in 1961 to 17% by 2022 and is projected to decline to 12% by 2050 without intervention. Each 10% implementation of salt-affected land and genetically modified soybeans alone could increase soybean SSR by 1.4% and 1.0%, whereas a 50% healthy dietary implementation alone could raise to 17%. Although individual policies yield modest improvements, their combined implementation could increase SSR to 74% by 2030 and 80% by 2050. This shift could free soybean sufficient to feed 1.89 billion additional people globally while avoiding cropland expansion in tropical frontiers, enabling reforestation and carbon sequestration.

Integrated policies could raise China's soybean self-sufficiency and ease global land-use pressure.pdf